Movie BO Lines for Dec 13-15!

[Royler]

Well, looks like some of us got hammered with the OVER for Analyze That. Definitely a boneheaded move...apparently only two movies have crossed the 20 million mark the weekend after Thanksgiving. Live and learn...I thought the movie would still perform. And I got hit with the UNDER on Empire as well. And here I thought ten years of reading movie magazines had me suitably prepared...

Here are Greek's handicap lines for next weekend. A tough call:

Star Trek Nemesis +0
Maid in Manhattan +16 mil
Hot Chick +14 mil
Drumline +24 mil

All are at +240. Better than a horse race, but only slightly more predictable. What does everyone think?

IMO, Trek is fairly played out at this point in time, and will probably wind up with around a 22-25 million haul. I think the two solid bets here are Hot Chick or Maid in Manhattan...and at those odds, it might not be a bad idea to hedge your bet. Schneider's last movie, Animal, opened up to 17 million, though I can't recall its competition. And Maid is the only romantic comedy out there right now. If I had to pick one, Hot Chick would seem to be the best bet. I don't think J. Lo is nearly as big a movie star as her press would suggest.

Drumline could pull a boner with that kind of handicap, but I'd be shocked if some ridiculous marching band concept broke out among all the A-list competition.

 

[AC]

need to see the theater counts on drumline but if it is 1000+ theaters then it should do 7 to 9 million. urban movies are a very steady business. maid in manhattan's tracking is improving. not sure what is happening with the hot chick, but the teens will probably buy tix for that one on fri and sat.

AC

 

[Ninja]

Where can you find tracking numbers on the net?

Do you have more than site?

 

[AC]

tracking numbers are not on the net. they are closely held in Los Angeles and NY with marketing and studio execs.

you gotta know somebody.

they can be off, but they are usually good predictors up to a certain point.

AC

 

[AC]

NEMESIS 2600 +

MAID IN MANHATTAN 2500 +

HOT CHICK 2200 +

DRUMLINE 1900

based on these numbers, I think DRUMLINE has a real shot at +24 million. if if makes 6 million, than NEMESIS has to make 30 million for it to lose. that would make NEMESIS the 5th highest grosser in Dec all time, in between SCREAM 2 and CASTAWAY. In 1998, STAR TREK INSURRECTION opened to 22 million.